European elections 2019: what will happen in London?

European elections 2019: what will happen in London?

With eight seats to play for, London is the jewel in the crown of the European Parliament elections, and the area certain to get most media attention. Long a bastion of Remainers (voting 60:40 to stay in Europe in 2016) the capital has also been increasingly strong for Labour in recent years. However, Corbyn’s ambiguity over his EU stance seems to have recently begun to erode the party’s standing, especially for the European Parliament elections. Two recent polls give the Liberal Democrats two seats, and one has them beating Labour into first place. Brexit Party poll ratings are relatively weak in the capital, but they are still on track to win two seats. The Greens and Tories seem sure of winning a seat each. And Change UK still has some chance here. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in this PR election, the Democratic Audit team reviews the likely outcomes for the parties, and looks at who the potentially electable candidates are.

European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s North East region?

European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s North East region?

Although the European Parliament elections are proportional ones, in a small region of three seats like the North East only the top two or three parties can hope to win a single seat, and only a strong party (with more than 30% support) can hope to win two. So this will likely be the least proportional region in the upcoming European Parliament elections, which take place on 23 May – and one of those where tactical voting is most useful. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.

Elections to the European Parliament: what if more people voted?

Elections to the European Parliament: what if more people voted?

Can the rise of Eurosceptic and extremist parties be blamed on the mobilisation of people who previously had abstained from the polls? An analysis of the 2009 and 2014 elections to the European Parliament suggests that support for Eurosceptic parties would be largely unaffected by changes in voter turnout, write Uwe Remer-Bollow, Patrick Bernhagen and Richard Rose. Extremist parties would even have lost vote shares if turnout had reached the higher levels observed at national general elections.

Book Review | Gender and the Radical and Extreme Right: Mechanisms of Transmission and the Role of Educational Interventions edited by Cynthia Miller-Idriss and Hilary Pilkington

Book Review | Gender and the Radical and Extreme Right: Mechanisms of Transmission and the Role of Educational Interventions edited by Cynthia Miller-Idriss and Hilary Pilkington

n Gender and the Radical and Extreme Right: Mechanisms of Transmission and the Role of Educational Interventions, editors Cynthia Miller-Idriss and Hilary Pilkington bring together contributors to offer an interdisciplinary perspective on an often overlooked topic: the intersections between the radical and extreme right, education and gender. This volume will be invaluable in present and future efforts to better understand the role that women play in these movements, write Katherine Williams.

Posted in: Book reviews
The flawed assumption of the centrist paradox and support for democracy

The flawed assumption of the centrist paradox and support for democracy

The so called ‘centrist paradox’ refers to the idea, proposed by David Adler, that an observed decline in support for democracy across the world has occurred primarily among centrist voters, rather than those who lie at the extremes of the policy spectrum. Elli Palaiologou argues that this theory is based on a flawed assumption that all individuals located between the left and right can be regarded as ‘centrist’. In reality, this ‘centrist’ group contains a large number of individuals who are simply less willing to take strong political positions, including on the value of democracy.

The North of Tyne mayoral election: can a ‘mini metro-mayor’ make a difference?

The North of Tyne mayoral election: can a ‘mini metro-mayor’ make a difference?

The new mayor for the North of Tyne Combined Authority, Jamie Driscoll, starts his mandate this week. Arianna Giovannini asks whether, with a limited budget, few powers and heading a combined authority with an unusual geography, Driscoll can deliver on his radical policy agenda.

Electoral reform: the fine print matters

Electoral reform: the fine print matters

How and when does a dominant party reform the electoral system? And how do they shape the details of that reform? In new research on the case of Swiss cantons, André Walter and Patrick Emmenegger find that self-interest by a dominant party can be crucial to determining how proportional the new system actually is.

Local elections 2019: gone missing – 500 councillors

Local elections 2019: gone missing – 500 councillors

Local elections are taking place across much of England today, 2 May. However, as Chris Game, explains, the number of local councillors has been reduced in many places, in a reorganisation process that lacks democratic accountability.

Strategic voting in the 2015 general election:  why Liberal Democrats didn’t vote for their own party

Strategic voting in the 2015 general election: why Liberal Democrats didn’t vote for their own party

When do people not vote for their preferred party? Isaac Hale finds that in 2015, Liberal Democrat supporters abandoned the party when they thought it had no chance of winning a seat and a tactical vote could affect the outcome in their constituencies. This shows how in a first-past-the-post electoral system smaller parties can be caught in a vicious cycle of low expectations and strategic voting by their supporters.

Local elections 2019: the directly elected mayoral contests

Local elections 2019: the directly elected mayoral contests

On Thursday, 2 May, local government elections are being held across England. At the same time, many voters will also be able to vote for a directly elected mayor to lead their council or metropolitan area. Elections for these mayoralties use the supplementary vote electoral system. The Democratic Audit team explains how these elections work, what will be on your ballot paper, and what we know about candidates’ prospects in each area.