Tag: Conservatives
European Parliament elections 2019: what will happen in the North West of England?
The North West is traditionally a stronghold for Labour, who came first and took three of the region’s eight seats the last time European Parliament elections were held in 2014. This time, however, the Brexit Party are outperforming UKIP’s past success in this area, and will win multiple seats from the region’s majority of pro-Leave voters in the 2016 referendum. The Conservative’s decline opens up a chance for one of the three strong pro-Remain parties to also win a seat, with the Lib Dems looking strongest and the Greens in with a chance of a seat. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.
European elections 2019: what will happen in London?
With eight seats to play for, London is the jewel in the crown of the European Parliament elections, and the area certain to get most media attention. Long a bastion of Remainers (voting 60:40 to stay in Europe in 2016) the capital has also been increasingly strong for Labour in recent years. However, Corbyn’s ambiguity over his EU stance seems to have recently begun to erode the party’s standing, especially for the European Parliament elections. Two recent polls give the Liberal Democrats two seats, and one has them beating Labour into first place. Brexit Party poll ratings are relatively weak in the capital, but they are still on track to win two seats. The Greens and Tories seem sure of winning a seat each. And Change UK still has some chance here. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in this PR election, the Democratic Audit team reviews the likely outcomes for the parties, and looks at who the potentially electable candidates are.
Powerful or warm? Liberal and conservative voters favour different traits in a politician
A politician’s personality has always been important to voters. Lasse Laustsen (Aarhus University) carried out analyses of American and Danish data to find out which character traits most appeal to liberal and conservative voters. Liberals – who take a more benevolent view of human co-operation – tend to prefer warm, co-operative individuals; conservatives, mindful of […]
Corbyn’s rent controls: radical new housing policy, or just rhetoric?
If there is one thing that Labour and Conservatives currently have in common, it is that both appear ready to embark on a step change in housing policy. But are Jeremy Corbyn’s recent announcements on rent controls a sign of change, or just another new political language for ‘masterly inactivity’? Ben Pattison (Sheffield Hallam University) reviews Labour’s […]
Republicans give more to charity – but not because they oppose income redistribution
Who gives more to charity – Republicans or Democrats? Michael Sances (University of Memphis) and Michele Margolis (University of Pennsylvania) found that conservative Americans donate more, even when socio-economic differences are taken into account. Could this be because they support a smaller role for the state, or as an effort to signal their philanthropic credentials? […]
Marriage from hell: what can Australia’s coalition tell us about the Tory-DUP government?
For the first time in British history, the Conservatives will be forced to rely on the hardline, illiberal Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to push through legislation. It is also the first time in the modern era that the British government will be forced to rely on a party with a strong sense of regional identity […]
A return to two-party politics? Don’t believe it
The snap election may have seen the biggest combined vote between the two main parties since 1970, but this is not the result of lost voters returning to their political homes, writes Darren Hughes. On the contrary, it is the outcome of 21st century voting patterns playing out within a broken 19th century voting system. Similar PostsGeneral election 2019: […]
How groupthink in Theresa May’s No 10 led to another round of political chaos
The UK’s political turmoil continues with a disastrous Conservative election campaign. But what led to the multiple miscalculations involved? Patrick Dunleavy argues that it forms part of a wider pattern of mis-governing from the centre of Whitehall – and it has characterised Theresa May’s leadership style from the outset. Similar PostsAudit 2017: How democratic and effective are the […]
No one won this General Election – and Labour’s internal wrangles are far from over
No party emerges with much credit from the general election, writes Robin Pettitt. Theresa May is diminished and she may not survive for long, even with the support of the DUP. Jeremy Corbyn captured 29 more seats but still lost the election, and his personal standing with voters remains poor and his problems with the […]
How UKIP’s election strategy is boosting Theresa May’s chances of a big majority
In the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit vote, UKIP seems to have lost much of its original purpose and is unlikely to repeat its 2015 vote share at the 2017 General Election. But, Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Rossiter argue, it may yet have an important – if indirect – impact on the election […]
Democratic Audit's core funding is provided by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. Additional funding is provided by the London School of Economics.