General Election 2017

General election polling goes geographical: the accuracy and value of constituency-level estimates

General election polling goes geographical: the accuracy and value of constituency-level estimates

The 2017 general election saw a largely unremarked geographical extension to opinion polling, with three analysts publishing estimates of which party was likely to win in each of the country’s constituencies. Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones, David Manley, Charles Pattie, Todd Hartman, and David Rossiter have analysed their accuracy and considered the implications of that development for the conduct of future elections.

2017: the first General Election where online news overtook TV

2017: the first General Election where online news overtook TV

Until recently, television was the single most popular source of news. Now online sources have overtaken it as younger generations turn to apps and social media. Research from the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism shows only the BBC has a bigger reach than Facebook. Rasmus Klein Neilsen explains how trust in journalists and journalism, particularly […]

The DUP’s extremist links make it unfit to join a Conservative alliance

The DUP’s extremist links make it unfit to join a Conservative alliance

Theresa May’s plans to broker a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party not only endanger the 1998 Belfast Agreement, writes James Hughes. They are likely to sour relations with the Republic of Ireland – just as sensitive negotiations over the border begin – and conveniently overlook the DUP’s links to violent extremism. Similar PostsAfter the 2 March […]

A return to two-party politics? Don’t believe it

A return to two-party politics? Don’t believe it

The snap election may have seen the biggest combined vote between the two main parties since 1970, but this is not the result of lost voters returning to their political homes, writes Darren Hughes. On the contrary, it is the outcome of 21st century voting patterns playing out within a broken 19th century voting system. Similar PostsCorbyn’s rent controls: […]

Three key lessons from Labour’s campaign – and how the party needs to change

Three key lessons from Labour’s campaign – and how the party needs to change

Jeremy Corbyn has confounded his critics and increased Labour’s share of the vote in the General Election. But the party is some way from being able to command a parliamentary majority, says Patrick Diamond. Labour has articulated a vision of society which appeals to many young people and ‘left behind’ voters. Now the party needs to […]

Celebrate the transformation of the Labour Party, not the individual who happens to speak for it

Celebrate the transformation of the Labour Party, not the individual who happens to speak for it

Labour lost the General Election and the Conservatives appear intent on striking a deal with the DUP in order to hold onto power. So what is there to celebrate for those on the Left? Lea Ypi argues that the Labour Party is now a reinvigorated force. It is the largest social democratic party in Europe; […]

How groupthink in Theresa May’s No 10 led to another round of political chaos

How groupthink in Theresa May’s No 10 led to another round of political chaos

The UK’s political turmoil continues with a disastrous Conservative election campaign. But what led to the multiple miscalculations involved? Patrick Dunleavy argues that it forms part of a wider pattern of mis-governing from the centre of Whitehall – and it has characterised Theresa May’s leadership style from the outset. Similar PostsAudit 2017: How democratic and effective are the […]

No one won this General Election – and Labour’s internal wrangles are far from over

No one won this General Election – and Labour’s internal wrangles are far from over

No party emerges with much credit from the general election, writes Robin Pettitt. Theresa May is diminished and she may not survive for long, even with the support of the DUP. Jeremy Corbyn captured 29 more seats but still lost the election, and his personal standing with voters remains poor and his problems with the […]

Running elections: it’s an expensive job, and cash-strapped local authorities have to do it

Running elections: it’s an expensive job, and cash-strapped local authorities have to do it

Local authorities are responsible for running elections. But do they have enough money to do the job properly? Toby S James and Tyrone Jervier say the introduction of individual voter registration has made it much more expensive to compile the register. Authorities whose budgets have been cut are less likely to do public engagement and […]

The “empty centre”: how voters’ views have polarised since 2015

The “empty centre”: how voters’ views have polarised since 2015

Following up from his 2015 analysis on the economic and cultural positions of party supporters in England, Jonathan Wheatley uses 2017 data and finds that party supporters have become far more polarised – leaving a gap in the middle, occupied possibly by large numbers of undecided voters. It is this ’empty centre’ on the economic […]